Mets Should Sign Lackey

John Lackey would fit in nicely in the Mets rotation as the number two starter right behind ace Johan Santana. Lackey is looking to sign a deal north of what AJ Burnett got from the Yankees last season; five years, $82.5 million. More so than spending over $100 million on a left fielder, the Mets need to sign Lackey, a top of the rotation kind of starter. All they need to do is look at their subway series rivals for the reason. The Yankees went through the entire postseason with three starters and it’s the first time a World Series champion team did that since the Twins did it in 1991. Having a great one-two punch of CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett at the top of the rotation allowed the Yankees to do it (it also didn’t hurt they had veteran Andy Pettitte as their number three starter). The combination of Johan Santana and John Lackey could be just as good, if not better, than Sabathia and Burnett.

Even with the additional offense the Mets can get by signing Matt Holliday or Jason Bay in left field, they aren’t going to make a deep October run with just Johan Santana and some middle rotation guys. Lackey is a much better number two starter than any of the pitchers the Mets currently have. Mike Pelfrey becomes the third starter followed by either John Maine or Oliver Perez. Lackey comes with postseason experience and a ring from 2002, during his rookie season.

Is Lackey deserving of a contract of more than Burnett’s $82.5 million over five years? Lackey and AJ Burnett have very similar career stats. Don’t be turned off that since going 2-0 in the 2002 postseason, Lackey as only won one game in nine playoff starts. His career record in the playoffs is 3-4 with a 3.12 ERA. He has won more than 14 games in a season just once (2007 19-9, 3.01 ERA). Here is how Burnett and Lackey’s career stats compare:

Career Statistics
                     G      GS    W       L    CG   SHO   IP           H        R       ER     HR     BB     K          ERA     
AJ Burnett      248   244  100    85   20    9     1583.1    1392   744    676   147    665   1473    3.84      
John Lackey   234   233  102    71   14    8     1501.0    1519   702    636   151    441   1201    3.81      

Instead of spending all of their money on a marquee left fielder, the Mets need to consider signing John Lackey first. They might exert a lot of time and effort into Holliday or Bay, who may sign elsewhere. As they are doing that, Lackey might be gone already and the top two left fielders and top pitcher are off the board and the Mets stand idle. Lackey needs to be the Mets’ number one target in free agency. Some day, Santana and Lackey could be standing where Sabathia and Burnett are standing today.

Notable World Series Champion 1-2 starting pitchers since 2000:
2000: Andy Pettitte/Roger Clemens Yankees
2001: Randy Johnson/Curt Schilling Diamondbacks
2004: Pedro Martinez/Curt Schilling Red Sox
2007: Josh Beckett/Curt Schilling Red Sox
2009: CC Sabathia/AJ Burnett Yankees

Tags: Johan Santana, John Lackey, John Maine, Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez