Jets Must Keep Colts Close to Have a Chance

As the AFC Championship nears, everyone and their mother is giving insight into what needs to happen for the Jets to win this football game. You can’t just key on one side of the ball and say the Jets have to stop the Colts on third-and-long. Yes, they do, but they also need to convert on their own third-and-longs and slow down the pass rush of hectic defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. You can’t just focus on the Jets putting pressure on Manning. Yes, they do need to, but they also need to run the ball effectively on offense and not turn the ball over. Every little thing, every play-call, every snap, every read, and every decision will need to be near perfect for the Jets to win this game.

Everybody knows the Jets’ style of play. The question is whether they can be effective doing it. Will the Jets defense contain Peyton Manning and the Colts’ offense long enough to be able to stick to the running game? As long as the game is within 10 points, the Jets are going to stay on the ground. Once Peyton opens the flood gate and gets cushion, the Jets will be forced to throw the ball.

In all of the Jets’ wins this season, playoffs and regular season combined, the biggest deficit they have overcome was seven points and that happened in both of their playoff games. The Jets haven’t won a game this season when trailing by more than seven points at any point in the game. The Jets can win games when their down by one score because they don’t have to stray from their game plan. They can keep the ball on the ground and don’t have to ask their rookie signal caller to put the team on his shoulders to drive down the field. When the deficit grows and they need two or three scores to get back in the game, that’s when they have to abandon the run and have Sanchez drop back almost every snap and throw.

Mark Sanchez has attempted 25 or more passes in a game seven times this season and the Jets are 2-5 with the two wins coming during the first three weeks of the season (in comparison Jets are 6-0 when Sanchez attempts 20 or fewer passes). He has thrown seven touchdowns and 17 interceptions with a completion percentage of 52.8 in those seven games combined. It’s critical the Jets keep the Colts to within seven or 10 points at most. If Peyton and Co. jump out to a two score lead early, the Jets may have a chance, but if they’re down by two scores from the second quarter on, the Jets will have a steep hill to climb that they haven’t been able to climb before. Stay within one possession and the Jets will have a chance.