Sabathia gave up five runs in six innings against the Indians Saturday and in his previous start he gave up five earned runs in five innings against the Mets. He is 0-2 in his last four starts and the Yankees are 0-4 in those games, although he pitched well against Boston on May 18, but, ironically, Joba and the bullpen blew the lead that Sabathia handed them.

Joba gave up four runs while only getting one out against the Indians Saturday. He gave up three earned runs in consecutive outings on May 16 against the Twins and May 18 against the Red Sox. Sometimes he comes into games and blows the opposition away, but other times he gets hit hard.

Sabathia has a proven track record and I can’t say I’m concerned with this recent patch of rough starts. He’s a big game pitcher, which we saw in the playoffs last year, and a string of a few poor starts in late May isn’t alarming unless it becomes habitual for a much longer period. Once he strings together three or four quality starts, we’ll forget about this rough patch.

To answer Rothstein’s question, not only does Joba concern me more, but the entire bullpen concerns me. Mariano is Mariano and I expect him to eventually find his groove and pitch like his normal self, but the rest of the bullpen is shaky. The loss of Aceves really hurts this bullpen. Aceves is a guy that Girardi has a lot of faith in and has been a great player for the Yankees in whatever role they put him in. His absence is noticeable and nobody has stepped up in his place. If a 6-run lead isn’t safe to deliver to the bullpen, than no lead is. The blame is on both Girardi and the bullpen. Girardi’s micromanaging may be a large reason for the bullpen’s struggles too, but guys need to get outs. Girardi should let some guys get more than one out, most notably Marte who Girardi uses oddly sometimes, but the pitchers have to get the outs that Girardi asks them to get no matter if it’s one out or six outs. But remember, Girardi managed like this last year and how did that turn out for the Yankees? 

I think that eventually the bullpen is going to settle down and start holding leads. Once Aceves comes back and Mariano hits his stride, the rest of the bullpen will fall into place. I’d also like to see the Yankees bring up Jonathan Albaladejo who has a 1.46 ERA in Triple-A. Maybe he could add some life to the ‘pen. For now, let’s hope the Yankees can give the bullpen a 6-run lead everyday because I’ll bet more times than not, they’ll hold that lead.

Early spring training starts aside, who is better suited to be the Yankees fifth starter? I don’t think I’m going out on the limb by saying that the spot will be given to either Joba or Hughes. The Yankees have visions of one of them being a starter this season, although, could you imagine how good their bullpen would be all season if they had both guys in there? They’d lock down the 7th and 8th innings before handing it off to Mariano Rivera. This was the case in the 2009 postseason and although Hughes didn’t pitch well then, I’d still be extremely content with having them both in the bullpen this coming October. 

The NY Daily News wrote a good article about Alfredo Aceves winning the starting spot and having Joba and Hughes in the bullpen. Although I can’t see it happening, the Yankees would turn their baseball games into six inning games. With Joba and Hughes working out of the bullpen, the Yankees may rarely lose games when having a lead after six innings. It would similar to 1996 when the Yankees were almost unbeatable when they had a lead after six innings. Mariano pitched the 7th and 8th innings and John Wetteland closed the door in the 9th. 

The argument of whether Joba or Hughes is better suited as a starter in 2010 is a tough one. Neither player has started more than 50 games in hus major league career. Looking at it from a relief pitcher standpoint, both pitchers have had success as a setup man in the bullpen during his careers. Phil Hughes’ 2009 regular season 8th inning dominance says he could be the heir apparent to Mariano Rivera, while Joba Chamberlain’s prior bullpen work and single-inning arsenal says he could be the heir apparent to Rivera. Both guys have shown that they can be great pitchers out of the bullpen. Neither pitcher has had enough starts in his career to say how good of a starter he can be. Joba has spent more time in the rotation than Hughes. He’s showed signs of brilliance at times, while other times he ‘s anything but dominating. Joba can be more dominating in a one or two inning relief appearance where he can let it fly compared to a start where he may hold back a little because he knows that he’s going to have to pitch six innings. 

The Yankees need to figure out a permanent roll for Joba. He’s went through “Joba Rules” and, bluntly, has been dragged around by the Yankees. He’s either going to be a starter or a reliever. They have to make a permanent decision eventually so the kid can get his mind right and know his role, present and future, with the team. 

I hate to say it, but Joba is best suited as a reliever and the eventual replacement for Rivera as the Yankees closer. I hate to say it because it makes “Joba Rules” seem like big waste of time. They pampered him and put him on strict inning limits for a year and a half and then end up sticking him into a one or two inning relief role. I also hate to say it because having Hughes as the fifth starter means there will be a set of “Hughes Rules”. Similar to the inning limits Joba had, Hughes would have them too. Having a pitcher in the rotation who has inning limitations puts pressure on the other pitchers in the rotation and also puts pressure on the bullpen. 

But if it’s to be done than it’s to be done. I’m in favor of the better starter winning as long as the decisions become permanent for the well-being of these pitchers’ arms. Also because I’m sick of them pitching with limitations. I want one of them to become a permanent starter and not have it take four years of flip-flopping between the rotation and bullpen before they can start 32 games and pitch 200+ innings. Joba’s at that point now where there will be no limitations for him as a starter. The Yankees have finally got Joba to this point and he may wind up in the bullpen. 

I’m thinking a bit ahead here, but say Hughes becomes the fifth starter this year and Joba goes to the bullpen. Then in 2011, Rivera is still pitching, Andy Pettitte retires, and the Yankees do not re-sign Javier Vazquez, leaving two starting pitcher spots open. Do the Yankees then re-insert Joba back into the starting rotation? Would he have to go through “Joba Rules” all over again? Give the kid a permanent roll and stick to it. If he becomes a reliever this year, then that’s where he needs to be in the future with the Yankees. Rivera isn’t going to pitcher forever, but if he does pitch for two more years, don’t just throw Joba back into the rotation until Rivera retires. Leave him in the ‘pen as Rivera’s setup man and then let him take the reigns when Rivera’s legacy comes to an end. 

I’m excited to see Spring progress allowing us to get a better feel of who will win the fifth starter spot.

Most Confidence: Mariano Rivera
Mr. Reliable has a 0.71 ERA this postseason. Girardi has called on Mo to get six out saves in game six of the ALCS and game two of the World Series. Girardi won’t have the luxury of using Mo for two inning saves in Philadelphia since there are no days off between any of the three games. Mo is one of the best, if not the best, postseason pitchers of all-time.

Gaining Confidence: Damaso Marte, Joba Chamberlain, David Robertson
Damaso Marte made 21 appearances and gave up 14 earned runs during an injury plagued 2009 regular season (9.45 ERA). The lefty specialist has gotten some big outs against left-handed hitters for the Yankees in the postseason. He hasn’t given up a run in five appearances although his last three appearances have come in Yankee losses.
Joba Chamberlain looks to have taken over as setup man. Joba has given up seven hits in 3.1 innings but has given up only one earned run. He’s been hit hard in a couple of outings against the Angels but the Yankees remain confident in Joba. Look for Girardi to go to Joba instead of Phil Hughes in the 8th inning.
David Robertson is 2-0 and hasn’t given up a run so far this postseason. Girardi’s not afraid to hand the ball to Robertson in a big spot. Robertson has put together strong efforts in tough spots this postseason including getting out of a bases loaded jam in extra innings against Minnesota that set up a Mark Teixeira walk-off  home run.

In the Middle: Phil Coke, Chad Gaudin
Phil Coke was once Girardi’s go-to-guy but has now become the second lefty Girardi calls upon. He hasn’t done anything to cause the demotion so it’s hard to understand. Some situations have called for a lefty pitcher but Girardi decided to stick with a right hander. Coke hasn’t given up any runs in two innings of work this postseason. 
Chad Gaudin is in limbo. He’s pitched one inning this postseason and it was the 9th inning of a 10-1 blowout win over the Angels. Gaudin awaits word of whether he’ll start a game in the World Series.

Losing Confidence: Phil Hughes, Brian Bruney, Alfredo Aceves
Phil Hughes had an unbelievable regular season as the Yankees setup man and bridge to Mariano. Hughes has been rocked this postseason. An inflamed 9.64 ERA and his inability to record an out in game one of the World Series doesn’t show Girardi he can be that 8th inning guy.
Brian Bruney won’t touch the mound unless there is a blowout. Not after he gave up two runs on three hits and recorded just one out in game one of the World Series. Bruney was left off the Yankees ALDS and ALCS rosters and for good reason. 
Alfredo Aceves hasn’t pitched since game three of the ALDS. Tied at 4-4, Aceves gave up the game winning run the 11th inning. In game two of the ALDS he gave up a run in the 11th inning but was saved by A-Rod’s game tying home run. Aceves has dropped in the pecking order.

Girardi has bee going to his bullpen often during these playoffs. Three pitchers came in for one out each in game two and three pitchers came in for one out each in game three. Girardi has been questioned for the way he has used his bullpen but hasn’t taken heat for it because the Yankees have been winning. Now, after their first loss of the postseason, Girardi is being ridiculed for the way he used his bullpen in game three. He made a great choice by bringing in Mariano Rivera with a man on second and no outs in the 10th but how often does that choice not pan out? His choice to bring in Aceves for Robertson is what’s in question.

You could argue Girardi should have left Mariano in for the 11th but that’s pushing it after he pitched 2.1 innings in game two.

Here is what Girardi told Bombers Beat writer Bryan Hoch after the game:

“Yeah, we thought we had Mo for an inning. I didn’t feel that I could stretch him out any further than that in that situation because of what we did the other day with him. So he had that inning, and that was it. As far as Robertson, we like the match up with Ace better, the two guys. And it didn’t work.”

Girardi has made several questionable pitching changes this postseason but has lucked out that the Yankees have won. After their game three loss, Girardi will be ridiculed a bit for his bullpen management, or lack-thereof.

You can question Girardi about some moves he made with his bench too. It’s tough to swallow Brett Gardner getting thrown out on a pitchout but it was going to happen to Gardner at some point this postseason.

The Angels were able to avoid a 3-0 deficit and make it a doable 2-1 series. The Yankees just couldn’t get things going on offense other than their four solo home runs. They weren’t able to string hits together and it cost them. Derek Jeter, Johnny Damon, A-Rod, and Jorge Posada each went deep for the Yankees. Posada’s home run came after pinch runner Brett Gardner was caught stealing on a pitchout. The Angels offense came from a solo home run by Howie Kendrick, a two-run homer by Vlad Guerrero, a sac fly, and the eventual game winning double by Mathis.

Alfredo Aceves, who gave up a run to the Angels in the 11th inning in game two, gave up the game winning run in the 11th inning of this one. With two outs in the 11th, Joe Girardi pulled David Robertson, who got the first two outs of the inning, for Aceves. Aceves gave up a single to Howie Kendrick and a game winning RBI double to Jeff Mathis. Just like that, the series is 2-1 in favor of the Yankees.

This should make Girardi think twice before bringing in Aceves again in this series. Joba Chamberlain also didn’t have a good outing, giving up a go-ahead run in the seventh inning on a sac-fly by Maicer Izturis. Girardi went to the ‘pen often again and this time, unlike most times this year, it backfired on him.

In 6.1 innings of work, Andy Pettitte gave up three runs on seven hits including a two-run homer to Vlad that tied the game at three in the 6th inning. Girardi didn’t handle his pitching staff too well in this game other than bringing in Mariano in the 10th after Phil Hughes gave up a leadoff double. Mo got out of the inning after he had runners on the corners with no outs. For the second straight game, Girardi used up his entire bullpen except for Chad Gaudin.

The Yankees go to Sabathia on short rest in game four. Scott Kazmir is slated to start for the Angels.

Weather could become a factor in the Yankees decision plans. They may choose a plan then have to change it if a game is cancelled or postponed. The outcome of games could also be a factor. Some people think with a 3-0 or 2-1 game lead, the Yankees should go to a fourth man and let Sabathia pitch game five on full rest. 

If the Yankees choose a four man rotation, questions will arise about who will be that fourth man. Will it be Joba Chamberlain, who worked out of the bullpen in each game of the ALDS, or Chad Gaudin, who hasn’t made an appearance yet this postseason but turned some heads on the regular season with unexpected strong pitching? I prefer keeping Joba in the ‘pen for the rest of the postseason and giving Gaudin the ball in game four with long reliever Alfredo Aceves waiting in the wings.

Once again, no decision has been made yet whether the Yankees are going with a three or four man rotation. All signs point toward a three man rotation right now.