The question of who will be the Yankees fifth starting pitcher is sure to be a hot topic until a decision is reached later this Spring. The leading candidates are the obvious suspects, Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes, followed by Sergio Mitre, Alfredo Aceves and Chad Gaudin (in no specific order).

Early spring training starts aside, who is better suited to be the Yankees fifth starter? I don’t think I’m going out on the limb by saying that the spot will be given to either Joba or Hughes. The Yankees have visions of one of them being a starter this season, although, could you imagine how good their bullpen would be all season if they had both guys in there? They’d lock down the 7th and 8th innings before handing it off to Mariano Rivera. This was the case in the 2009 postseason and although Hughes didn’t pitch well then, I’d still be extremely content with having them both in the bullpen this coming October. 

The NY Daily News wrote a good article about Alfredo Aceves winning the starting spot and having Joba and Hughes in the bullpen. Although I can’t see it happening, the Yankees would turn their baseball games into six inning games. With Joba and Hughes working out of the bullpen, the Yankees may rarely lose games when having a lead after six innings. It would similar to 1996 when the Yankees were almost unbeatable when they had a lead after six innings. Mariano pitched the 7th and 8th innings and John Wetteland closed the door in the 9th. 

The argument of whether Joba or Hughes is better suited as a starter in 2010 is a tough one. Neither player has started more than 50 games in hus major league career. Looking at it from a relief pitcher standpoint, both pitchers have had success as a setup man in the bullpen during his careers. Phil Hughes’ 2009 regular season 8th inning dominance says he could be the heir apparent to Mariano Rivera, while Joba Chamberlain’s prior bullpen work and single-inning arsenal says he could be the heir apparent to Rivera. Both guys have shown that they can be great pitchers out of the bullpen. Neither pitcher has had enough starts in his career to say how good of a starter he can be. Joba has spent more time in the rotation than Hughes. He’s showed signs of brilliance at times, while other times he ‘s anything but dominating. Joba can be more dominating in a one or two inning relief appearance where he can let it fly compared to a start where he may hold back a little because he knows that he’s going to have to pitch six innings. 

The Yankees need to figure out a permanent roll for Joba. He’s went through “Joba Rules” and, bluntly, has been dragged around by the Yankees. He’s either going to be a starter or a reliever. They have to make a permanent decision eventually so the kid can get his mind right and know his role, present and future, with the team. 

I hate to say it, but Joba is best suited as a reliever and the eventual replacement for Rivera as the Yankees closer. I hate to say it because it makes “Joba Rules” seem like big waste of time. They pampered him and put him on strict inning limits for a year and a half and then end up sticking him into a one or two inning relief role. I also hate to say it because having Hughes as the fifth starter means there will be a set of “Hughes Rules”. Similar to the inning limits Joba had, Hughes would have them too. Having a pitcher in the rotation who has inning limitations puts pressure on the other pitchers in the rotation and also puts pressure on the bullpen. 

But if it’s to be done than it’s to be done. I’m in favor of the better starter winning as long as the decisions become permanent for the well-being of these pitchers’ arms. Also because I’m sick of them pitching with limitations. I want one of them to become a permanent starter and not have it take four years of flip-flopping between the rotation and bullpen before they can start 32 games and pitch 200+ innings. Joba’s at that point now where there will be no limitations for him as a starter. The Yankees have finally got Joba to this point and he may wind up in the bullpen. 

I’m thinking a bit ahead here, but say Hughes becomes the fifth starter this year and Joba goes to the bullpen. Then in 2011, Rivera is still pitching, Andy Pettitte retires, and the Yankees do not re-sign Javier Vazquez, leaving two starting pitcher spots open. Do the Yankees then re-insert Joba back into the starting rotation? Would he have to go through “Joba Rules” all over again? Give the kid a permanent roll and stick to it. If he becomes a reliever this year, then that’s where he needs to be in the future with the Yankees. Rivera isn’t going to pitcher forever, but if he does pitch for two more years, don’t just throw Joba back into the rotation until Rivera retires. Leave him in the ‘pen as Rivera’s setup man and then let him take the reigns when Rivera’s legacy comes to an end. 

I’m excited to see Spring progress allowing us to get a better feel of who will win the fifth starter spot.

If Joba Chamberlain wins the fifth starting spot in the Yankees’ rotation he won’t have any inning restrictions. “Joba Rules” have been called off and the young pitcher will be able to let it fly in 2010.

Yankees pitching coach, Dave Eiland, told the NY Daily News, “He’s just going to go out and pitch and he’ll be the one who’ll dictate when he comes out as far as getting hit or getting tired or losing his stuff. He’s not going to have any restrictions, so Joe (Girardi) and I are not going to have to go into the game thinking, ‘Oh, he’s got 85 pitches or six innings or whatever comes first.’ We don’t have to game plan it out. The kid gloves are off, and he’s just going to go out and pitch and he knows that and he’s going to come in and be all geared up to win that job, as are the other guys. Competition should bring out the best in everyone.”

Joba will be competing with Phil Hughes, Chad Gaudin, and Sergio Mitre for the fifth starting spot, but Hughes poses the biggest threat for Joba. If Hughes wins the spot expect him to be on an inning limits. Joba will pitch out of the bullpen in that case.

Phil Hughes pitched great as the Yankees setup man during the regular season and had some postseason struggles in that same role. Joba was sent to the bullpen for the playoffs and by the end of the World Series he was one of Joe Girardi’s go-to guys out of the ‘pen. Both players can get the job done out of the bullpen, but it makes more sense to have Joba become the fifth starter because of him not having inning limitations anymore. 

It’s about time the Yankees make a decision on who Joba Chamberlain is. Is he a starter? Is he a setup man? Is he the heir to Mariano? Stop jerking the kid around and choose his roll. 

My personal belief is that Joba should be the fifth starter and Hughes should work as the setup man. After 2010 the Yankees may need to fill holes left by Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte (neither has made a decision of retirement after 2010 though). The man who the Yankees choose to put in the bullpen this year could step into either role (starter or closer) in 2011 and stay there for a long time.

Who do the Yankees trust coming out of the bullpen? The first and most obvious answer; Mariano Rivera. After Mariano the level of trust drops substantially. Here are the various confidence levels the Yankees have in their bullpen.

Most Confidence: Mariano Rivera
Mr. Reliable has a 0.71 ERA this postseason. Girardi has called on Mo to get six out saves in game six of the ALCS and game two of the World Series. Girardi won’t have the luxury of using Mo for two inning saves in Philadelphia since there are no days off between any of the three games. Mo is one of the best, if not the best, postseason pitchers of all-time.

Gaining Confidence: Damaso Marte, Joba Chamberlain, David Robertson
Damaso Marte made 21 appearances and gave up 14 earned runs during an injury plagued 2009 regular season (9.45 ERA). The lefty specialist has gotten some big outs against left-handed hitters for the Yankees in the postseason. He hasn’t given up a run in five appearances although his last three appearances have come in Yankee losses.
Joba Chamberlain looks to have taken over as setup man. Joba has given up seven hits in 3.1 innings but has given up only one earned run. He’s been hit hard in a couple of outings against the Angels but the Yankees remain confident in Joba. Look for Girardi to go to Joba instead of Phil Hughes in the 8th inning.
David Robertson is 2-0 and hasn’t given up a run so far this postseason. Girardi’s not afraid to hand the ball to Robertson in a big spot. Robertson has put together strong efforts in tough spots this postseason including getting out of a bases loaded jam in extra innings against Minnesota that set up a Mark Teixeira walk-off  home run.

In the Middle: Phil Coke, Chad Gaudin
Phil Coke was once Girardi’s go-to-guy but has now become the second lefty Girardi calls upon. He hasn’t done anything to cause the demotion so it’s hard to understand. Some situations have called for a lefty pitcher but Girardi decided to stick with a right hander. Coke hasn’t given up any runs in two innings of work this postseason. 
Chad Gaudin is in limbo. He’s pitched one inning this postseason and it was the 9th inning of a 10-1 blowout win over the Angels. Gaudin awaits word of whether he’ll start a game in the World Series.

Losing Confidence: Phil Hughes, Brian Bruney, Alfredo Aceves
Phil Hughes had an unbelievable regular season as the Yankees setup man and bridge to Mariano. Hughes has been rocked this postseason. An inflamed 9.64 ERA and his inability to record an out in game one of the World Series doesn’t show Girardi he can be that 8th inning guy.
Brian Bruney won’t touch the mound unless there is a blowout. Not after he gave up two runs on three hits and recorded just one out in game one of the World Series. Bruney was left off the Yankees ALDS and ALCS rosters and for good reason. 
Alfredo Aceves hasn’t pitched since game three of the ALDS. Tied at 4-4, Aceves gave up the game winning run the 11th inning. In game two of the ALDS he gave up a run in the 11th inning but was saved by A-Rod’s game tying home run. Aceves has dropped in the pecking order.

Neither team has confirmed their starters throughout the entire series but here are the probable starters. Game one starters have been confirmed by both teams.

Game 1 Wed, Oct 28. Cliff Lee @ CC Sabathia (Phillies won 6-1)
Game 2 Thurs, Oct 29. Pedro Martinez @ AJ Burnett (Yankees won 3-1)
Game 3 Sat, Oct 31. Andy Pettitte @ Cole Hamels

The Yankees will most like go with just three starting pitchers in the World Series.

The rest of the series could look something like this:

Game 4 Sun, Nov 1. CC Sabathia @ Joe Blanton
Game 5 Mon, Nov 2. AJ Burnett @ Cliff Lee
Game 6 Wed, Nov 4. Pedro Martinez @ Andy Pettitte
Game 7* Thurs, Nov 5. Cole Hamels @ CC Sabathia

* if necessary

With a 2-1 series advantage, the Yankees turn to CC Sabathia in game four of the ALCS on three days rest. Sabathia started game one against the Angels and pitched eight strong innings giving up just one run on four hits.

Coming off a game three loss in 11 innings, this game is important for Yankees. Not to say that other postseason games are not important, but winning the game puts the Yankees up 3-1 and losing the game puts the series at 2-2. This game is a little bit more important for Joe Girardi especially. Girardi took some heat for the way he used his bullpen in game three. Now the fate of game four sits in the hands of Sabathia, who Girardi chose to pitch on short rest.

Some people are torn on whether the choice of pitching Sabathia on short rest instead of going with a well-rested Chad Gaudin is a smart idea. I agree with Girardi’s choice of pitching Sabathia on short rest. First of all, the short rest period won’t phase Sabathia. The guy is a horse. He could have thrown in game two if he ahd to. Sabathia on three days is better than Gaudin on full rest. Also, having Sabathia start game four sets the Yankees pitching staff up for the last three games of the series. Game five goes to Burnett, game six to Pettitte and game seven would be pitched by Sabathia again. Those three starts would all be on full rest.

If Sabathia lays an egg in game four, Girardi is going to take severe heat, especially after the way he managed in game three. If Sabathia has a strong outing, he puts the Yankees in great position to win the series and Girardi’s game three mismanagement may be forgotten.

No decision has been cemented yet by he Yankees concerning their rotation for the ALCS against the Angels. We know CC Sabathia will get the ball in game one, followed by AJ Burnett and Andy Pettitte. Game four remains up in the air. Joe Girardi is leaning toward going with a three man rotation and starting Sabathia for game four on three days rest, setting him up to pitch game seven on full rest. The day off between games four and five in Anaheim allows Burnett and Pettitte to pitch the series on regular rest even if Sabathia goes on three days rest. Sabathia’s game seven start would also be on full rest thanks to the off day in Anaheim.

Weather could become a factor in the Yankees decision plans. They may choose a plan then have to change it if a game is cancelled or postponed. The outcome of games could also be a factor. Some people think with a 3-0 or 2-1 game lead, the Yankees should go to a fourth man and let Sabathia pitch game five on full rest. 

If the Yankees choose a four man rotation, questions will arise about who will be that fourth man. Will it be Joba Chamberlain, who worked out of the bullpen in each game of the ALDS, or Chad Gaudin, who hasn’t made an appearance yet this postseason but turned some heads on the regular season with unexpected strong pitching? I prefer keeping Joba in the ‘pen for the rest of the postseason and giving Gaudin the ball in game four with long reliever Alfredo Aceves waiting in the wings.

Once again, no decision has been made yet whether the Yankees are going with a three or four man rotation. All signs point toward a three man rotation right now.