Top 10 New York Fantasy Baseball Targets for 2010

As the snow melts and spring inches closer, it’s hard not to imagine the beautiful green grass at the new Yankee Stadium, the brand new championship banner being hung, and hopes of a repeat in the minds’ of all the fans. Across town, the old saying, “hope springs eternal” comes into play at Citifield, home of the New York Mets, a team looking to rebound from an injury plagued 2009 season and unseat the defending National League Champion Phillies from atop the NL East. There are some great team storylines. However, though they say there is no “I” in team, fantasy baseball is all about the “I”. Will Jose Reyes bounce back? Will knee surgery affect Carlos Beltran’s bottom line? How will Curtis Granderson fare in The Bronx? I’ll answer these questions and more in my Top 5 Mets and Yankees to target in fantasy baseball for 2010.

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Mets Lower Center Field Wall

In hopes of aiding their home run power, the Mets have lowered the center field wall at Citi Field from 16 feet to 8 feet. The Mets hit a total of 95 home runs in 2009, the lowest of any team in the league by far. Forty-nine of their home runs were hit at home and 46 were away from Citi Field. 

Citi Field plays big but I can’t only blame the stadium’s dimensions for the Mets lack of home runs in 2009. If there were a huge discrepancy between the amount of home runs they hit away from Citi Field compared to at Citi Field then maybe we could have concluded the size of the stadium was the main factor but that’s not the case. The Mets didn’t have healthy power bats and David Wright didn’t have a big power season which contributed to the power outage. Injuries played a major factor in the low total as well. With the addition of Jason Bay and a healthy lineup, the Mets should increase their home run total in 2010 no matter how tall the center field wall is.

Mets Introduce Jason Bay at Press Conference

The Mets introduced their new star left fielder Jason Bay today at Citi Field. Bay met the New York media for the first time as a Met Tuesday and he’ll be inserted into a Mets lineup that was filled with injuries in 2009. The Mets in hot pursuit of Bay since the early stages of free agency and they finally landed their big fish.

Bay’s four-year $66 million contract doesn’t allow the Mets to address other glaring needs through free agency, but the signing will provide the Mets with a much needed power bat in the middle of their lineup. Bay, David Wright, and Carlos Beltran will bat third, fourth and fifth in some order. 

The signing of Bay is meaningful for the fact that the Mets may not have a power hitting first basemen. Whether their first basemen be the young Daniel Murphy or an older Carlos Delgado, it doesn’t seem as though they’ll receive much power from that position. Citi Field is a big ballpark and the Mets need someone who can drive the ball to the deep parts of the field.

While the Mets were in pursuit of Bay, it was said that Bay did not want to join the Mets. Bay denied those allegations at the press conference.

“I wouldn’t have signed the contract if I didn’t want to be here or I wasn’t happy. This is one of the biggest days of my life,” Bay told the media. 

Bay has hit over 30 home runs and 100 RBIs in four of the last five years. Last season, with the Red Sox, he hit .267 with 36 home runs and 119 RBIs. Bay was one of the top three free agents on the market.

Mets Sign Jason Bay

Jason Bay and the Mets have come to an agreement on a four-year deal worth $66 million according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Including a vesting option year, the deal could total $80 million over five years.

Bay will be the Mets left fielder and will most likely be penciled in as their number five hitter after David Wright and Carlos Beltran.

Mike Francesa broke the story on WFAN this afternoon. Yesterday, he preempted something big would happen with the Mets today.

Red Sox to Sign John Lackey

FOX Sports is confirming what FanHouse’s Ed Price reporter earlier that John Lackey is taking a physical with the Red Sox and will sign with Boston. FOX’s Ken Rosenthal cites the deal will be similar to what the Yankees gave AJ Burnett last winter which was $82.5 million over five years. 

With the top free agent pitcher off the market, teams will turn to second-tier pitchers like Joel Pineiro and Jason Marquis. Look for the Mets to pursue one of those pitchers and turn their full attention toward Jason Bay.

Reports: John Lackey to Red Sox

Reports from several sources starting with Ed Price of FanHouse suggest free agent pitcher John Lackey is headed to Boston. 

Ed Price tweeted, “Source: Free-agent P John Lackey to take physical with Red Sox. Boston apparently moving on to 2nd choice after Jason Bay. Working to confirm.”

This has implications on both the Yankees and Mets. 

The Mets have extended an offer to left fielder Jason Bay, formerly of the Red Sox. Boston has made at least two offers to Bay, but he has turned them both down. It looks like the Lackey signing means Boston will walk away from Bay. Now that Bay isn’t headed to Boston, the Mets are more of a likely landing spot for Bay.

Lackey to Boston makes the AL East tougher and may force the Yankees to dip into the free agent pool or trade market for another starting pitcher. Beckett, Lackey, and Lester will be tough trio to face. The Yankees will be in no rush to do so though.

Reason Mets Offer Contract to Jason Bay

Are the Mets building a team that will be a serious contender in 2011? That may very well be the case. If they wanted to contend in 2010 they would have offered John Lackey a contract instead of Jason Bay (although contending in this case means a second place finish in the division). Either one of these guys only makes the Mets marginally better but the thinking would be to get a left fielder while there are an abundance of them on the market and two of them happen to be really good. John Lackey leads this year’s free agent pitching crop but there is a drop in talent after him. Next year’s free agent pitching class is much deeper and includes Josh Beckett, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Brandon Webb, and Ted Lilly to name a few.    

The Mets have too many holes and Omar Minaya can’t fix this team in one offseason. They can’t sign the top three free agents for a quick fix like the Yankees did last year. There’s no way they can fill all of their holes during one free agency period. The topic of how much money the Mets spend and have the ability to spend is a different issue. Scott Boras recently called the Mets “cheap”, but they have the highest payroll in the NL. That’s hardly being cheap.

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Mets Holes and Free Agency

Let’s face it. The Mets aren’t in a good position. They have a lot of question marks on their roster due to all of the injuries they suffered in 2009. They also have a lot of holes to fill. The team has said they don’t want to increase their payroll by more than $20 million from 2009 therefore making it hard to fill all of the holes through free agency, especially if they sign one of the top free agents who will demand most of the $20 million. 

The following are the holes the Mets need to fill and what they can do to fill them:

Pitchers: First and foremost, Omar Minaya needs to focus on getting a number two starter to pitch behind Johan Santana. The Mets can have the best offense in the National League, but without having another viable starting pitcher behind Johan, they won’t get to the next level. Free agent John Lackey is going to cost them an estimated $16 million a year. Although they should spend their money on Lackey, the cheaper route would be signing Jason Marquis or Joel Pineiro.   

Left Field: The Mets have offered Jason Bay a four-year deal worth $65 million. They’ll also get into talks with Matt Holliday although it’s doubtful they’ll sign him. Spending money on a left fielder will certainly handcuff the team from spending elsewhere. The Mets can get away with signing a second-tier left fielder if their core players like Carlos Beltran and David Wright rebound in 2010. Marlon Byrd would be a good signing for them at left field. 

Catcher: It seems certain the Mets will work out a deal with free agent catcher Bengie Molina. The deal will most likely work out to be a two-year deal for around $12 million. By the time this contract ends, catching prospect Josh Thole should be ready to start. 

These aren’t the Mets only holes though. They also need a setup man and a first basemen. Daniel Murphy is penciled in as the first basemen right now, but things can change. The 24 year old is going to have to hit for more power to remain the team’s first basemen.

Being in New York city, being in the same town as the Yankees, having a brand new ball park, having to sell seats in that brand new ball park, and having an anxious, annoyed fan base makes it hard for the Mets to sit around and do nothing. They can’t remain static. They have to make a move to appease their fans and sell tickets.

Mets Make Offers to Jason Bay, Bengie Molina

Mike Francesa has reported on WFAN radio that the Mets are ready to make an offer to free agent left fielder Jason Bay. According to Jon Heyman of SI the deal is $65 million over four years. Reports also suggest the Mets will be making an offer to catcher Bengie Molina. Details of the offers are not available at this time. 

With the Red Sox in 2009, Bay hit 36 home runs with 119 RBIs while posting .267 average and .384 OBP.

Molina hit .265 in 2009 with 20 home runs and 80 RBIs while playing with the Giants.

Mets, Second-Tier Free Agents

Bill Madden of the Daily News suggests the Mets go after second-tier free agents rather than the marquee players who will demand large contracts. While I agree with Madden that the Mets should pursue second-tier position players, I disagree with the Mets pursuing second-tier pitchers. The Mets need to sign the best free agent pitcher, John Lackey, or make a trade for one of the best pitchers in the game, Roy Halladay. A team can get production from a cheaper alternative at left field, but when it comes to pitching, cheaper alternatives don’t always add up to the production of an ace-like pitcher. 

If the Mets settle on both second-tier position players and pitchers, they’ll remain at mediocrity in 2010. Their rotation is full of question marks after Johan Santana. Will free agent pitchers like Jason Marquis, Randy Wolf or Joel Pineiro be any better than current Met starters John Maine, Mike Pelfrey or Oliver Perez? 

Left fielders Matt Holliday and Jason Bay are going to be expensive and will hinder the Mets from spending money elsewhere. When I looked over the Mets options at left field, Marlon Byrd seemed the best fit for the team. The left field free agent class is deep compared to other positions. After Holliday and Bay, the there are steady players like Byrd, Johnny Damon and Marcus Thames, among others.

Financially, it’s not certain where the team stands. The Mets are said to be targeting marquee free agents but when it comes down to it, will they be able to afford them? If they can, Lackey should be target number one. After Lackey, they can look to Marlon Byrd or Marcus Thames in left field and also take a peak at another starter like Jason Marquis or Joel Pineiro. 

If Lackey is not an option, the Mets should strongly consider putting together a package for Roy Halladay. Halladay has recently said he won’t be signing with the Blue Jays after 2010, making it more likely he’ll be traded. 

The addition of Lackey or Halladay will make this team an instant playoff contender. The addition of Marquis or Pineiro will make this team marginally better.

Here is why the Mets should sign John Lackey.