Posts Tagged ‘Johan Santana’

San Francisco Giants (17-10) @ New York Mets (15-13)

Pitching Probables:
Friday: Jonathan Sanchez, LHP (2-2, 2.48) vs. Mike Pelfrey, RHP (4-1, 2.40)
Saturday: Todd Wellemeyer, RHP (1-3, 5.55) vs. Johan Santana, LHP (3-2, 4.50)
Sunday: Tim Lincecum, RHP (4-0, 1.70) vs. Oliver Perez, LHP (0-2, 4.05)

Giants Player to Watch: Keep an eye on Bengie Molina, whom I expect to be booed in his at-bats. Molina had “reportedly” agreed to a deal with the Mets but backed up to return to San Fran. I don’t think too many Mets fans are complaining now with the great play of Rod Barajas but it is still something that must sting fans knowing he really did not want to be here and once he got another offer, a worse offer he took it and ran from New York. Molina is also their big slugger so keep an eye on him because the Giants do not have a very deep lineup offensively and they rely heavily on Molina.

Mets Player to Watch: Starting Pitchers. Mike Pelfrey had an MRI during the week and skipped a bullpen session. He is also coming off his first loss last week in Philly in a pretty bad start. Let’s see how Pelf bounces back. Santana gave up 10 runs to Philly on Sunday night and just had nothing on his pitches. This is a big start for Johan as he needs to bounce back in a big way. And than of course there’s Olie. Olie was awful 2 weeks ago against LAD. Pretty good against Cincy. This is a big start for Perez because it may be the rubber game and the Mets are 0-5 in those this year. They MUST win this series and Perez must continue to pitch consistently well. Oh yeah…and Perez faces Tim Lincecum Sunday which makes his start even more important.

The Rubber Game: It would be great if the Mets won tonight and tomorrow with Pelf and Johan on the mound and than we did not worry about Perez vs. Lincecum, but I doubt it will work out that way. As I have said in every series since I have started writing – the Mets MUST win 2 out of 3 in this series and I will continue to preach that and leave it at that. 2 of 3. Pelfrey tonight against a sometimes wild Jonathan Sanchez. Our “ace” tomorrow against a guy who used to be a middle reliever. And our….our Olie? Against one of the game’s top two pitchers. Win tonight. Win tomorrow. And go to Church or Temple to pray on Sunday for Olie.

Bill Madden of the Daily News suggests the Mets go after second-tier free agents rather than the marquee players who will demand large contracts. While I agree with Madden that the Mets should pursue second-tier position players, I disagree with the Mets pursuing second-tier pitchers. The Mets need to sign the best free agent pitcher, John Lackey, or make a trade for one of the best pitchers in the game, Roy Halladay. A team can get production from a cheaper alternative at left field, but when it comes to pitching, cheaper alternatives don’t always add up to the production of an ace-like pitcher. 

If the Mets settle on both second-tier position players and pitchers, they’ll remain at mediocrity in 2010. Their rotation is full of question marks after Johan Santana. Will free agent pitchers like Jason Marquis, Randy Wolf or Joel Pineiro be any better than current Met starters John Maine, Mike Pelfrey or Oliver Perez? 

Left fielders Matt Holliday and Jason Bay are going to be expensive and will hinder the Mets from spending money elsewhere. When I looked over the Mets options at left field, Marlon Byrd seemed the best fit for the team. The left field free agent class is deep compared to other positions. After Holliday and Bay, the there are steady players like Byrd, Johnny Damon and Marcus Thames, among others.

Financially, it’s not certain where the team stands. The Mets are said to be targeting marquee free agents but when it comes down to it, will they be able to afford them? If they can, Lackey should be target number one. After Lackey, they can look to Marlon Byrd or Marcus Thames in left field and also take a peak at another starter like Jason Marquis or Joel Pineiro. 

If Lackey is not an option, the Mets should strongly consider putting together a package for Roy Halladay. Halladay has recently said he won’t be signing with the Blue Jays after 2010, making it more likely he’ll be traded. 

The addition of Lackey or Halladay will make this team an instant playoff contender. The addition of Marquis or Pineiro will make this team marginally better.

Here is why the Mets should sign John Lackey.

John Lackey would fit in nicely in the Mets rotation as the number two starter right behind ace Johan Santana. Lackey is looking to sign a deal north of what AJ Burnett got from the Yankees last season; five years, $82.5 million. More so than spending over $100 million on a left fielder, the Mets need to sign Lackey, a top of the rotation kind of starter. All they need to do is look at their subway series rivals for the reason. The Yankees went through the entire postseason with three starters and it’s the first time a World Series champion team did that since the Twins did it in 1991. Having a great one-two punch of CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett at the top of the rotation allowed the Yankees to do it (it also didn’t hurt they had veteran Andy Pettitte as their number three starter). The combination of Johan Santana and John Lackey could be just as good, if not better, than Sabathia and Burnett.

Even with the additional offense the Mets can get by signing Matt Holliday or Jason Bay in left field, they aren’t going to make a deep October run with just Johan Santana and some middle rotation guys. Lackey is a much better number two starter than any of the pitchers the Mets currently have. Mike Pelfrey becomes the third starter followed by either John Maine or Oliver Perez. Lackey comes with postseason experience and a ring from 2002, during his rookie season.

Is Lackey deserving of a contract of more than Burnett’s $82.5 million over five years? Lackey and AJ Burnett have very similar career stats. Don’t be turned off that since going 2-0 in the 2002 postseason, Lackey as only won one game in nine playoff starts. His career record in the playoffs is 3-4 with a 3.12 ERA. He has won more than 14 games in a season just once (2007 19-9, 3.01 ERA). Here is how Burnett and Lackey’s career stats compare:

Career Statistics
                     G      GS    W       L    CG   SHO   IP           H        R       ER     HR     BB     K          ERA     
AJ Burnett      248   244  100    85   20    9     1583.1    1392   744    676   147    665   1473    3.84      
John Lackey   234   233  102    71   14    8     1501.0    1519   702    636   151    441   1201    3.81      

Instead of spending all of their money on a marquee left fielder, the Mets need to consider signing John Lackey first. They might exert a lot of time and effort into Holliday or Bay, who may sign elsewhere. As they are doing that, Lackey might be gone already and the top two left fielders and top pitcher are off the board and the Mets stand idle. Lackey needs to be the Mets’ number one target in free agency. Some day, Santana and Lackey could be standing where Sabathia and Burnett are standing today.

Notable World Series Champion 1-2 starting pitchers since 2000:
2000: Andy Pettitte/Roger Clemens Yankees
2001: Randy Johnson/Curt Schilling Diamondbacks
2004: Pedro Martinez/Curt Schilling Red Sox
2007: Josh Beckett/Curt Schilling Red Sox
2009: CC Sabathia/AJ Burnett Yankees

It’s been a dreadful 2009 season for the Mets and they are going to be happy when it’s over so they can put it behind them. There is a lot of work to be done to get this team back into playoff contention for 2010. It’s never to early to look into the upcoming offseason when talking about a team that is in the basement. Here are some move and maneuvers that could help fix the Mets and turn them into a contender in 2010.

• Replace Minaya – The Mets have said that Minaya will be in charge for at least one more year but I don’t personally believe he deserves another year. Some of his actions are reprehensible and he has made some poor baseball moves. It’s time for a change but it won’t happen because of his contract.
• Replace Manuel – Minaya and Manuel go hand-in-hand. Since I think Minaya needs to be replaced then Manuel needs to go too. He has made some head-shaking mistakes and questionable choices. He said he didn’t know Mariano Rivera was on deck. How can this guy lead a team when he doesn’t pay attention to details. Minaya is going to be here for another year and so will Manuel. The Mets really need to get rid of both guys and get a new regime in place to turn the page on the Minaya era.
• Put Jose Reyes on the trading block – Test the waters. See what can be acquired in return. Maybe the Mets can land a number two or three starter for Reyes. The shortstop free agent class isn’t strong but it would be well worth getting a guy to pitch behind Santana in exchange for Reyes. The Mets and Reyes may be better off going separate ways. The Mets could go after free agent shortstops Khalil Greene, Adam Everett, or maybe even Orlando Cabrera.
• Leave Daniel Murphy at first base – He’s young and will improve. He’s already improved in one season. Save money for other spots, don’t spend big on a first basemen. With some work, Murphy can be a formidable first basemen.
• Spend on left fielder – Make a run after Matt Holliday, Jason Bay or Carl Crawford if they are available. Crawford makes sense if the Mets get rid of Reyes. Holliday or Bay would slip nicely into the fifth spot in the lineup giving the Mets a potent 3-4-5 combination of Wright, Beltran and Holliday/Bay.
• Sign a catcher – Rod Barajas, and Bengie Molina will be free agents and Miguel Olivo has a chance to be a free agent too. The Mets need a hard-nosed catcher who has some pop in his bat. I like Barajas for the Mets.
• Finally, get these guys healthy and ready to go for spring training

Whether you agree or disagree, leave comments and tell me your thoughts on how to fix the Mets.

Johan Santana will miss the remainder of the season and have surgery for bone chips on his pitching elbow.  Santana has felt some discomfort in the elbow since the All-Star break but just recently felt increased discomfort.  Santana should be ready to pitch for spring training.

Met reliever JJ Putz has also been shut down for the remainder of the year.  Putz already had elbow surgery but a new MRI showed new issues. 

Already with a miniscule postseason chance, the loss of Santana will mark the definitive end of the Mets’ 2009 postseason hopes.

Jeff Francoeur injured himself making a diving catch in yesterday’s loss to the Phillies.  The play was originally called a hit but was overturned after the umpires congregated and agreed that Francoeur did in fact make the catch.  Francoeur is listed as day-to-day with a torn ligament in his left thumb.  

Now to the big news.  Johan Santana is feeling some discomfort in his pitching elbow and will miss his next start.  Santana has not been throwing any bullpen sessions between starts since the All-Star break because the elbow has given up problems.  The Mets shouldn’t take any chances with Santana.  He is their ace and they have a lot invested in him for the future.  

The injuries continue for the Mets.  It’s been unreal to say the least.  Being out of contention, the Mets need to seriously consider shutting down some of their players for the rest of the season.

Johan Santana couldn’t have expected a season like this.  No one could have.  The Mets are in dire straits but Santana isn’t part of the problem.  Throughout everything the Mets have been through this season, Santana has pitched his heart out.  He may be critical of his teammates from time to time but he is a competitor and wants to win.  It has been a season to forget for the Mets but Santana is having another great year.  Santana currently is 13-8 with a 3.00 ERA and you couldn’t tell how bad the Mets were by looking at his stats.  Santana has a good chance at winning more games this season than last season (16-7 in 2008).  We all know he is a true ace and is one of the best pitchers in the game today but he has not received the credit he deserves for going out to the mound every fifth day this season and giving it his all when his team has been disappointing.

How long will it be until the Mets throw in the towel and fold it in for the 2009 season?  The Mets are currently in fourth place, 9.5 games back of the Phillies and 8.5 games behind the wild card leader.  Though I don’t think the Mets have a shot at making the postseason this season, I think they should wait to throw in the towel until they either hit a cold spell and drop to 11 or 12 games back or if they are still around 8 or 9 games back and in fourth place on August 25.  

What I mean by the Mets throwing in the towel is that the Mets should shut down Reyes and Beltran for the remainder of the season, cut back Santana’s innings, call up some prospects to let them get a taste of the majors and see how they perform, and also explain that management will discuss that status’ of Jerry Manuel and Omar Minaya (among others) during the offseason.  If the Mets are stuck in fourth place by September 1, why would they want to risk long term injury to their injured players if they really have no shot at going anywhere this season.  There comes a point where the Mets need to start focusing on the 2010 season and as long as they are trailing three teams in their own division, the organization has to start thinking about when that time may be.  

The Mets hierarchy doesn’t have to come out and say they are giving up in ’09 and the players can keep fighting and believing, but they need to take action now in order to help win next season.  If it means shutting down some injured stars and taking Santana out after six innings and 90 pitches, they must do it.  Unless the Mets get on a hot streak and fight back into contention, the team will have thrown it in by September and will be looking ahead to free agency and the 2010 season.