Red Sox to Sign John Lackey

FOX Sports is confirming what FanHouse’s Ed Price reporter earlier that John Lackey is taking a physical with the Red Sox and will sign with Boston. FOX’s Ken Rosenthal cites the deal will be similar to what the Yankees gave AJ Burnett last winter which was $82.5 million over five years. 

With the top free agent pitcher off the market, teams will turn to second-tier pitchers like Joel Pineiro and Jason Marquis. Look for the Mets to pursue one of those pitchers and turn their full attention toward Jason Bay.

Reports: John Lackey to Red Sox

Reports from several sources starting with Ed Price of FanHouse suggest free agent pitcher John Lackey is headed to Boston. 

Ed Price tweeted, “Source: Free-agent P John Lackey to take physical with Red Sox. Boston apparently moving on to 2nd choice after Jason Bay. Working to confirm.”

This has implications on both the Yankees and Mets. 

The Mets have extended an offer to left fielder Jason Bay, formerly of the Red Sox. Boston has made at least two offers to Bay, but he has turned them both down. It looks like the Lackey signing means Boston will walk away from Bay. Now that Bay isn’t headed to Boston, the Mets are more of a likely landing spot for Bay.

Lackey to Boston makes the AL East tougher and may force the Yankees to dip into the free agent pool or trade market for another starting pitcher. Beckett, Lackey, and Lester will be tough trio to face. The Yankees will be in no rush to do so though.

Reason Mets Offer Contract to Jason Bay

Are the Mets building a team that will be a serious contender in 2011? That may very well be the case. If they wanted to contend in 2010 they would have offered John Lackey a contract instead of Jason Bay (although contending in this case means a second place finish in the division). Either one of these guys only makes the Mets marginally better but the thinking would be to get a left fielder while there are an abundance of them on the market and two of them happen to be really good. John Lackey leads this year’s free agent pitching crop but there is a drop in talent after him. Next year’s free agent pitching class is much deeper and includes Josh Beckett, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Brandon Webb, and Ted Lilly to name a few.    

The Mets have too many holes and Omar Minaya can’t fix this team in one offseason. They can’t sign the top three free agents for a quick fix like the Yankees did last year. There’s no way they can fill all of their holes during one free agency period. The topic of how much money the Mets spend and have the ability to spend is a different issue. Scott Boras recently called the Mets “cheap”, but they have the highest payroll in the NL. That’s hardly being cheap.

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Mets Holes and Free Agency

Let’s face it. The Mets aren’t in a good position. They have a lot of question marks on their roster due to all of the injuries they suffered in 2009. They also have a lot of holes to fill. The team has said they don’t want to increase their payroll by more than $20 million from 2009 therefore making it hard to fill all of the holes through free agency, especially if they sign one of the top free agents who will demand most of the $20 million. 

The following are the holes the Mets need to fill and what they can do to fill them:

Pitchers: First and foremost, Omar Minaya needs to focus on getting a number two starter to pitch behind Johan Santana. The Mets can have the best offense in the National League, but without having another viable starting pitcher behind Johan, they won’t get to the next level. Free agent John Lackey is going to cost them an estimated $16 million a year. Although they should spend their money on Lackey, the cheaper route would be signing Jason Marquis or Joel Pineiro.   

Left Field: The Mets have offered Jason Bay a four-year deal worth $65 million. They’ll also get into talks with Matt Holliday although it’s doubtful they’ll sign him. Spending money on a left fielder will certainly handcuff the team from spending elsewhere. The Mets can get away with signing a second-tier left fielder if their core players like Carlos Beltran and David Wright rebound in 2010. Marlon Byrd would be a good signing for them at left field. 

Catcher: It seems certain the Mets will work out a deal with free agent catcher Bengie Molina. The deal will most likely work out to be a two-year deal for around $12 million. By the time this contract ends, catching prospect Josh Thole should be ready to start. 

These aren’t the Mets only holes though. They also need a setup man and a first basemen. Daniel Murphy is penciled in as the first basemen right now, but things can change. The 24 year old is going to have to hit for more power to remain the team’s first basemen.

Being in New York city, being in the same town as the Yankees, having a brand new ball park, having to sell seats in that brand new ball park, and having an anxious, annoyed fan base makes it hard for the Mets to sit around and do nothing. They can’t remain static. They have to make a move to appease their fans and sell tickets.

Mets, Second-Tier Free Agents

Bill Madden of the Daily News suggests the Mets go after second-tier free agents rather than the marquee players who will demand large contracts. While I agree with Madden that the Mets should pursue second-tier position players, I disagree with the Mets pursuing second-tier pitchers. The Mets need to sign the best free agent pitcher, John Lackey, or make a trade for one of the best pitchers in the game, Roy Halladay. A team can get production from a cheaper alternative at left field, but when it comes to pitching, cheaper alternatives don’t always add up to the production of an ace-like pitcher. 

If the Mets settle on both second-tier position players and pitchers, they’ll remain at mediocrity in 2010. Their rotation is full of question marks after Johan Santana. Will free agent pitchers like Jason Marquis, Randy Wolf or Joel Pineiro be any better than current Met starters John Maine, Mike Pelfrey or Oliver Perez? 

Left fielders Matt Holliday and Jason Bay are going to be expensive and will hinder the Mets from spending money elsewhere. When I looked over the Mets options at left field, Marlon Byrd seemed the best fit for the team. The left field free agent class is deep compared to other positions. After Holliday and Bay, the there are steady players like Byrd, Johnny Damon and Marcus Thames, among others.

Financially, it’s not certain where the team stands. The Mets are said to be targeting marquee free agents but when it comes down to it, will they be able to afford them? If they can, Lackey should be target number one. After Lackey, they can look to Marlon Byrd or Marcus Thames in left field and also take a peak at another starter like Jason Marquis or Joel Pineiro. 

If Lackey is not an option, the Mets should strongly consider putting together a package for Roy Halladay. Halladay has recently said he won’t be signing with the Blue Jays after 2010, making it more likely he’ll be traded. 

The addition of Lackey or Halladay will make this team an instant playoff contender. The addition of Marquis or Pineiro will make this team marginally better.

Here is why the Mets should sign John Lackey.

2010 MLB Free Agent Predictions

Major League Baseball free agency kicks off when the clock hits midnight on November 20, 2009 and here are Empire Sports Now’s free agent predictions as it pertains to the Yankees and Mets and also the top free agents so it should make things very interesting for online betting.

Matt Holliday LF – Cardinals. Holliday will be the first left fielder to sign and will stay in St. Louis. Dark Horse – Mets

Jason Bay LF – Red Sox. Bay already rejected Boston’s four-year, $60 million deal but they’ll get something done, especially once Holliday signs. The Red Sox don’t want to be left without Holliday or Bay. Dark Horse – Yankees

Johnny Damon LF – Athletics. Former Athletic Jason Giambi signed with Oakland after the Yankees, Damon will do the same. If not Oakland, he’ll be back with the Yankees.

Hideki Matsui LF/DH – Yankees. The Yankees and Matsui will come to an agreement on a one-year deal.

Andy Pettitte SP – Yankees. It’s either retirement of the Bronx for Pettitte and it looks like he wants to pitch one more year.

John Lackey SP – Mets. The Mets won’t get Holliday, Bay or Figgins so they’ll spend on Lackey to pitch behind Santana. Dark Horse – Yankees

Marlon Byrd LF – Mets. He’s the next best option at left field for the Mets behind Holliday and Bay. He’ll also be a lot cheaper.

Other notable predictions:
Carlos Delgado – Marlins
Jason Marquis – Mets
Chone Figgins – Angels

Agree or disagree? Let us know.

Yankees’ Interest in Roy Halladay

According to Jon Heyman of SI, the Yankees have contacted the Blue Jays about Roy Halladay. The Yankees have tested the waters in the past, but the price was too high for Halladay. The Blue Jays were asking for Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain in a package of prospects back in July and the Yankees didn’t budge. Turns out the 2009 World Series champs didn’t need Halladay. Hughes and Joba pitched well for them throughout the season, most notably Hughes as the setup man in the regular season and Joba in the late innings of the postseason.

The longer the Blue Jays wait, the less they’ll acquire in return for Halladay. Current Blue Jays general manager, Alex Anthopoulos, would like to get at least something for him before he jets into free agency and they are only compensated by a draft pick.

Just like the Yankees didn’t budge in July, they shouldn’t budge this winter. The main reason is they won without the guy! Why would they want to give up their better prospects and young arms for a him when they already know they can do it without him? It makes less sense now than it did over the summer for the Yankees not to pursue Halladay. Their two young arms, Hughes and Joba, have more postseason experience than Halladay. Don’t get me wrong, Halladay is a great pitcher. Top of the line. I’d rather see the Yankees sign free agent pitcher John Lackey than trade for Halladay. It’s better they only lose dollars, not players, to acquire a pitcher.

Here are two articles I wrote last July against the Yankees’ pursuit of Roy Halladay: The Yankees and Roy Halladay, Yankees Shouldn’t Celebrate the “Halladay”. I stand by my words and there is absolutely no reason the Yankees should acquire Roy Halladay, even if the Red Sox are on the verge of signing him. There should be no “swooping in” by the Yankees like they did with Teixeira. Brian Cashman will remain in the talks for Halladay to either drive up the price for the Red Sox and other bidders, or because the Yankees are genuinely interested in bringing Halladay to the Bronx.

Mets Should Sign Lackey

John Lackey would fit in nicely in the Mets rotation as the number two starter right behind ace Johan Santana. Lackey is looking to sign a deal north of what AJ Burnett got from the Yankees last season; five years, $82.5 million. More so than spending over $100 million on a left fielder, the Mets need to sign Lackey, a top of the rotation kind of starter. All they need to do is look at their subway series rivals for the reason. The Yankees went through the entire postseason with three starters and it’s the first time a World Series champion team did that since the Twins did it in 1991. Having a great one-two punch of CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett at the top of the rotation allowed the Yankees to do it (it also didn’t hurt they had veteran Andy Pettitte as their number three starter). The combination of Johan Santana and John Lackey could be just as good, if not better, than Sabathia and Burnett.

Even with the additional offense the Mets can get by signing Matt Holliday or Jason Bay in left field, they aren’t going to make a deep October run with just Johan Santana and some middle rotation guys. Lackey is a much better number two starter than any of the pitchers the Mets currently have. Mike Pelfrey becomes the third starter followed by either John Maine or Oliver Perez. Lackey comes with postseason experience and a ring from 2002, during his rookie season.

Is Lackey deserving of a contract of more than Burnett’s $82.5 million over five years? Lackey and AJ Burnett have very similar career stats. Don’t be turned off that since going 2-0 in the 2002 postseason, Lackey as only won one game in nine playoff starts. His career record in the playoffs is 3-4 with a 3.12 ERA. He has won more than 14 games in a season just once (2007 19-9, 3.01 ERA). Here is how Burnett and Lackey’s career stats compare:

Career Statistics
                     G      GS    W       L    CG   SHO   IP           H        R       ER     HR     BB     K          ERA     
AJ Burnett      248   244  100    85   20    9     1583.1    1392   744    676   147    665   1473    3.84      
John Lackey   234   233  102    71   14    8     1501.0    1519   702    636   151    441   1201    3.81      

Instead of spending all of their money on a marquee left fielder, the Mets need to consider signing John Lackey first. They might exert a lot of time and effort into Holliday or Bay, who may sign elsewhere. As they are doing that, Lackey might be gone already and the top two left fielders and top pitcher are off the board and the Mets stand idle. Lackey needs to be the Mets’ number one target in free agency. Some day, Santana and Lackey could be standing where Sabathia and Burnett are standing today.

Notable World Series Champion 1-2 starting pitchers since 2000:
2000: Andy Pettitte/Roger Clemens Yankees
2001: Randy Johnson/Curt Schilling Diamondbacks
2004: Pedro Martinez/Curt Schilling Red Sox
2007: Josh Beckett/Curt Schilling Red Sox
2009: CC Sabathia/AJ Burnett Yankees

Yankees Trade and Free Agent Rumors

Here are some rumors going around about the Yankees as of November 12, 2009.

The New York Post reports Scott Boras, agent of Johnny Damon, is making a case that his client deserves a contract similar to Jeter. Boras is looking to get Damon a deal for three or four years while the Yankees would like to bring him back for one or two years tops. Read the article

If Boras sticks to his guns then Damon’s days in pinstripes are over. Cashman isn’t going to dish out big bucks to Damon until he’s 40 years old. The Yankees have prospect Austin Jackson waiting in the wings and he should better ready in the next year or two. The Yankees can find a cheaper, younger alternative for left field.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post has also reported that the Tigers will be taking offers for Curtis Granderson and believes the Yankees will be interested. Read the article

I’m probably in the minority but I’m not so sure I like this. Granderson started hitting for power in ‘09 and his average plummeted. In ‘09 he hit 30 home runs and batted .249 with a .327 OBP. His OBP was over .360 in ‘07 and ‘08 and he hit 23 and 22 home runs those seasons. He hit .302 in ‘07 and .280 in ‘08. If he stole more bases I think it would be a no-brainer (20 SB in ‘09, 12 SB in ‘08, 25 SB in ‘07).

Brian Cashman on Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes: “I look at them as starters that can relieve.” Read the article

This could change if the Yankees add a starting pitcher or two.

SI reports that Andy Pettitte is leaning on coming back to the Yankees for one more year.

Pettitte has supposedly told some Yankees he wants to play one more year.

The Yankees, looking for another starting pitcher, have been linked to having interest in free agent John Lackey, the Blue Jays’ Roy Halladay and SI thinks Derek Lowe of the Braves.

Some teams are concerned with Lackey’s durability. If the Blue Jays put Halladay out there, expect the Yankees to be bidders along with the Red Sox, Mets, and some other teams. I’d rather see the Yankees go with a young pitcher, like Hughes, Kennedy or maybe Brackman, rather than trade for Derek Lowe.