Bill Madden of the Daily News suggests the Mets go after second-tier free agents rather than the marquee players who will demand large contracts. While I agree with Madden that the Mets should pursue second-tier position players, I disagree with the Mets pursuing second-tier pitchers. The Mets need to sign the best free agent pitcher, John Lackey, or make a trade for one of the best pitchers in the game, Roy Halladay. A team can get production from a cheaper alternative at left field, but when it comes to pitching, cheaper alternatives don’t always add up to the production of an ace-like pitcher. 

If the Mets settle on both second-tier position players and pitchers, they’ll remain at mediocrity in 2010. Their rotation is full of question marks after Johan Santana. Will free agent pitchers like Jason Marquis, Randy Wolf or Joel Pineiro be any better than current Met starters John Maine, Mike Pelfrey or Oliver Perez? 

Left fielders Matt Holliday and Jason Bay are going to be expensive and will hinder the Mets from spending money elsewhere. When I looked over the Mets options at left field, Marlon Byrd seemed the best fit for the team. The left field free agent class is deep compared to other positions. After Holliday and Bay, the there are steady players like Byrd, Johnny Damon and Marcus Thames, among others.

Financially, it’s not certain where the team stands. The Mets are said to be targeting marquee free agents but when it comes down to it, will they be able to afford them? If they can, Lackey should be target number one. After Lackey, they can look to Marlon Byrd or Marcus Thames in left field and also take a peak at another starter like Jason Marquis or Joel Pineiro. 

If Lackey is not an option, the Mets should strongly consider putting together a package for Roy Halladay. Halladay has recently said he won’t be signing with the Blue Jays after 2010, making it more likely he’ll be traded. 

The addition of Lackey or Halladay will make this team an instant playoff contender. The addition of Marquis or Pineiro will make this team marginally better.

Here is why the Mets should sign John Lackey.

John Lackey would fit in nicely in the Mets rotation as the number two starter right behind ace Johan Santana. Lackey is looking to sign a deal north of what AJ Burnett got from the Yankees last season; five years, $82.5 million. More so than spending over $100 million on a left fielder, the Mets need to sign Lackey, a top of the rotation kind of starter. All they need to do is look at their subway series rivals for the reason. The Yankees went through the entire postseason with three starters and it’s the first time a World Series champion team did that since the Twins did it in 1991. Having a great one-two punch of CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett at the top of the rotation allowed the Yankees to do it (it also didn’t hurt they had veteran Andy Pettitte as their number three starter). The combination of Johan Santana and John Lackey could be just as good, if not better, than Sabathia and Burnett.

Even with the additional offense the Mets can get by signing Matt Holliday or Jason Bay in left field, they aren’t going to make a deep October run with just Johan Santana and some middle rotation guys. Lackey is a much better number two starter than any of the pitchers the Mets currently have. Mike Pelfrey becomes the third starter followed by either John Maine or Oliver Perez. Lackey comes with postseason experience and a ring from 2002, during his rookie season.

Is Lackey deserving of a contract of more than Burnett’s $82.5 million over five years? Lackey and AJ Burnett have very similar career stats. Don’t be turned off that since going 2-0 in the 2002 postseason, Lackey as only won one game in nine playoff starts. His career record in the playoffs is 3-4 with a 3.12 ERA. He has won more than 14 games in a season just once (2007 19-9, 3.01 ERA). Here is how Burnett and Lackey’s career stats compare:

Career Statistics
                     G      GS    W       L    CG   SHO   IP           H        R       ER     HR     BB     K          ERA     
AJ Burnett      248   244  100    85   20    9     1583.1    1392   744    676   147    665   1473    3.84      
John Lackey   234   233  102    71   14    8     1501.0    1519   702    636   151    441   1201    3.81      

Instead of spending all of their money on a marquee left fielder, the Mets need to consider signing John Lackey first. They might exert a lot of time and effort into Holliday or Bay, who may sign elsewhere. As they are doing that, Lackey might be gone already and the top two left fielders and top pitcher are off the board and the Mets stand idle. Lackey needs to be the Mets’ number one target in free agency. Some day, Santana and Lackey could be standing where Sabathia and Burnett are standing today.

Notable World Series Champion 1-2 starting pitchers since 2000:
2000: Andy Pettitte/Roger Clemens Yankees
2001: Randy Johnson/Curt Schilling Diamondbacks
2004: Pedro Martinez/Curt Schilling Red Sox
2007: Josh Beckett/Curt Schilling Red Sox
2009: CC Sabathia/AJ Burnett Yankees